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Patriots’ best chance to win: Run the ball and keep Patrick Mahomes off the field. As easy a time as Tom Brady had Sunday, a big reason the Patriots were so dominant was their Sony Michel-led run game, which helped bleed off the first quarter before Philip Rivers even took the field. New England had the fifth-most rushing yards and the fourth-most rushing touchdowns in the league this season. The Patriots averaged a time of possession of 32 minutes, 21 seconds in their wins and 28:17 in their losses. Against Mahomes, who had 50 touchdown passes this season, and a Chiefs run game that rolled up 180 yards in Saturday’s home playoff victory over the Colts, it’s vital the Patriots control the ball, the clock and the game with their offense.

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Chiefs’ best chance to win: Well, based on Sunday, it’s obviously not “load up on defensive backs, sit back in an insanely soft zone and let Brady pick you apart as if he’s playing on a football-toss machine at Dave & Buster’s.” That didn’t work too well for the Chargers. No, the Chiefs’ best chance to win is to do what they did Saturday and play out of their minds on defense. Kansas City was able to pressure Andrew Luck just enough (especially considering how hard that was to do in 2018) while their corners covered as well as they have all season. If Kansas City’s defense can crank it up at home again the way it did in the divisional round, the Chiefs will make it a lot tougher on the Patriots than the Chargers did. But that isn’t saying much.

Stat to know: Chiefs coach Andy Reid is 1-4 all-time in conference championship games — all in the NFC while he was coaching the Eagles, and none since 2008. Patriots coach Bill Belichick, meanwhile, is 8-4 all-time in conference championship games (all with the Patriots). Belichick will be coaching in his eighth consecutive AFC Championship Game and has won the past two.

Bottom line: The game is at Kansas City, not Foxborough, Massachusetts, and that could make the difference. During the Brady/Belichick era, the Patriots are 20-3 in postseason home games, but just 3-4 in playoff games as the visiting team. They haven’t won a road playoff game and the Super Bowl in the same season since 2004. The past two times they played an AFC Championship Game on the road, they lost — in Denver three and five years ago. This season, the Patriots are 9-0 at home and 3-5 on the road, including double-digit losses at Jacksonville, Detroit and Tennessee. The Chiefs are 8-1 at home. When they faced the Patriots in Week 6, it was in Foxborough, and New England beat them 43-40 on a last-second field goal in a game that featured 30 combined fourth-quarter points. This should be a classic rematch, and the fact that it’s in the Chiefs’ building would seem to give them a chance to slay the league’s most fearsome January dragon.

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New Year’s resolution: Surround Tom Brady with more explosive playmakers. The Patriots made 26 transactions at wide receiver since 2017 training camp began, which reflected their struggles to decisively address the position. That put more of the burden on the 41-year-old Brady, who invested heavily in bringing along Josh Gordon before the receiver was lost to an indefinite NFL suspension in mid-December. — Mike Reiss
7. Houston Texans (11-5)
Week 17 ranking: 7

New Year’s resolution: Make the offensive line the priority in free agency and the NFL draft so you can ensure Deshaun Watson is able to remain on the field. The Texans gave up an NFL-high 62 sacks in the regular season. Watson has been sacked 81 times in 23 career games; he can’t continue to take that kind of beating. The Texans need to bring in an offensive lineman in free agency and target one of the top offensive tackles in the draft. — Turron Davenport
8. Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
Week 17 ranking: 8

New Year’s resolution: Develop Lamar Jackson as a passer. There’s no question Jackson is an electric runner and a poised leader. The next step in Jackson’s evolution is in the passing game. In seven starts, Jackson completed 58.2 percent of this passes, throwing five touchdowns and three interceptions (82.6 passer rating). With a full offseason, teams are going to pick apart Baltimore’s dominant rushing attack. To counter that, Jackson has to become more consistent with his throws. — Jamison Hensley

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9. Seattle Seahawks (10-6)
Week 17 ranking: 9

New Year’s resolution: Tighten things up on defense. One of the hallmarks of Pete Carroll’s Seahawks teams has been that they rarely give up big gains, but that hasn’t been the case this season. The Seahawks have allowed 5.92 yards per play, easily the most in any of Carroll’s nine seasons in Seattle and almost a full yard more than they allowed in 2017. Adding a playmaker at safety or linebacker this offseason would help, but the Seahawks will need the improvement to come from within during the playoffs, especially if they run into a big-play offense such as that of the Rams or Saints. — Brady Henderson
10. Indianapolis Colts (10-6)
Week 17 ranking: 10

New Year’s resolution: Acquire a complementary receiver to go with T.Y. Hilton. The Colts’ second-best receiver has been tight end Eric Ebron, who had a team-high 13 touchdown catches during the regular season. Dontrelle Inman, who was signed after Week 6 because of injuries at the position, moved all the way up to the No. 2 receiver by late in the season. But he turns 30 at the end of January. Getting a young No. 2 receiver — or one just as good as Hilton — will make an already impressive offense that finished sixth overall even better. — Mike Wells
11. Dallas Cowboys (10-6)
Week 17 ranking: 12

New Year’s resolution: Reach a long-term deal with DeMarcus Lawrence. The Cowboys wanted Lawrence to prove he was not a one-hit wonder after he recorded 14.5 sacks in 2017, so they placed the franchise tag on him. He answered in 2018 with another Pro Bowl season and 10.5 more sacks. The Cowboys have a history of keeping their own players off the market, and Jerry Jones has sought a “war daddy” pass-rusher since DeMarcus Ware’s departure. Lawrence has shown he is one of the best pass-rushers in the league, and the Cowboys will have the cap room necessary to keep him. — Todd Archer

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CINCINNATI — The Bengals put quarterback Matt Barkley on injured reserve, leaving Jeff Driskel as the backup to Andy Dalton heading into the season.

Barkley hurt his left knee during the Bengals’ preseason finale Thursday night against Indianapolis. Kemoko Turay hit Barkley in the legs after he threw a pass, drawing a roughing-the-passer penalty. Barkley left to get the knee examined and didn’t return.

Driskel is a third-year player who broke the thumb on his passing had in the final preseason game last year and sat out the season. He has never appeared in an NFL game. The Bengals also waived seventh-round pick Logan Woodside, who is eligible to be signed to the practice squad if he clears waivers on Sunday.

The backup quarterback spot opened when AJ McCarron won his grievance and became a free agent after last season.

The Bengals also released 10th-year defensive end Michael Johnson as part of their moves to get down to the 53-man limit, although it could be a temporary separation. Johnson becomes a free agent and could re-sign with Cincinnati for lesser money.

Johnson has played all but one of his nine seasons with Cincinnati. He led the defensive line with 49 tackles and five sacks last season. The Bengals have infused young pass rushers into their rotation, including Carl Lawson and Jordan Willis.

Coach Marvin Lewis described Johnson as “one of those pillars who has been here and given everything he can.” Lewis indicated the Bengals are open to his return as they shape the roster over the next few days.

The move with Johnson came four days after the Bengals gave multiyear extensions to defensive end Carlos Dunlap and tackle Geno Atkins. The deals would pay more than $100 million combined if all terms are met.

The Bengals allowed cornerback Adam “Pacman” Jones to leave as a free agent in the off-season and released safety George Iloka, making the defence younger while saving money. Jones signed with Denver, and Iloka signed with Minnesota.

H-back Ryan Hewitt and centre T.J. Johnson also were released on Saturday. Hewitt was primarily a blocker — no carries and two catches last season — while Johnson became expendable when the Bengals drafted centre Billy Price in the first round.

Linebacker Vontaze Burfict went on the suspended list. He’ll miss the first four games for violating the NFL’s policy on performance-enhancing substances, the third year in a row that he’s suspended for the start of a season.

Cincinnati opens the season on Sunday, Sept. 9 at Indianapolis, which expects to have Andrew Luck back at quarterback for the first time in more than 20 months. Luck has recovered from a shoulder injury that required surgery.

The teams played in the regular season last year as well, with the Bengals winning 24-23 at Paul Brown Stadium on Dunlap’s interception return for a touchdown.

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With an abundance of fantasy football information online, it’s not as though players are unknown when draft day approaches. At the same time, there are always players that could slip through the cracks in relative terms.

Maybe it’s because they are older. The NFL is most certainly a young man’s game, but there’s nothing wrong with having reliable consistency even if it’s not the flashiest fantasy pick.

Maybe it’s because they are competing for playing time, because opportunity plays such a big part of an NFL player’s success.

Maybe it’s a young player who hasn’t done much in the league. Without an established track record, there’s a better chance that they might avoid detection from other fantasy owners.

Maybe it’s due to injury, either their own or an opportunity created by another player getting hurt.

Whatever the reason may be, here are some sleeper candidates for the 2018 NFL season:

Philip Rivers, QB, L.A. Chargers – It’s not like he’s unknown since he’s passed for more than 50,000 yards in his career, but he’s also a 36-year-old that doesn’t make it as a flashy option at the marquee position. Nevertheless, he’s thrown for at least 4,000 yards and 28 touchdowns in each of the past five seasons and has played every game for 12 straight seasons.

Alex Smith, QB, Washington – He threw for a career-high 4,042 yards and 26 touchdowns last season, but Smith moves to D.C. this year and that could still be okay because the Washington offence has helped Kirk Cousins put up big numbers in recent seasons.

Adrian Peterson, RB, Washington – After rookie Derrius Guice suffered a torn ACL in the preseason, the door was opened for Peterson, the 33-year-old who struggled to 3.4 yards per carry with New Orleans and Arizona last season. Maybe he’s done, but it’s worth finding out if the 2015 rushing champ still has something left in the tank.

Carlos Hyde, RB, Cleveland – He has yet to rush for 1,000 yards in a season, but Hyde has 2,439 yards and 17 touchdowns over the past two seasons in San Francisco, and starts this season atop the Browns’ depth chart.

Chris Carson, RB, Seattle – First-round pick Rashaad Penny is knocking on the door, but he suffered a broken finger in camp, so Carson has the opportunity to start. He had a solid showing in brief action as a rookie, putting up 267 yards from scrimmage in four games.

Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay – He is suspended for the first two games of the season, and is facing competition from Ty Montgomery and Jamaal Williams, but Jones averaged an extraordinary 5.5 yards per carry as a rookie, so he may be the upside play in the Packers’ backfield.

Mike Williams, WR, L.A. Chargers – The seventh pick in the 2017 Draft, Williams had 11 catches in 10 games as a rookie, but the 6-foot-4 receiver has big-time talent and should be a red-zone threat for the Chargers, especially after tight end Hunter Henry suffered a season-ending torn ACL.

Allen Hurns, WR, Dallas – The last time he had more than 500 yards receiving in a season was 2015, when he had 1,031 yards and 10 touchdowns for Jacksonville. Now in Dallas, where the Cowboys have precious few proven receivers, Hurns may end up as Dak Prescott’s best option in the passing game.

Danny Amendola, WR, Miami – The 32-year-old vet had 659 receiving yards for the Patriots last season, his most in a season since 2012, but he’s also had trouble staying healthy. If he stays on the field this year, he could be a reliable slot performer for the Dolphins.

Ryan Grant, WR, Indianapolis – The 27-year-old had a career-high 45 receptions for 573 yards in Washington last season and now moves to the Colts, where he should have a starting job. If quarterback Andrew Luck is back to something approaching previous form, Grant could exceed last year’s numbers.

Keelan Cole, WR, Jacksonville – In the wake of Marqise Lee’s knee injury, Cole – and Dede Westbrook – should move into a more prominent role in the Jaguars offence. Cole was a big-play threat as a rookie, averaging 17.8 yards per catch.

John Ross, WR, Cincinnati – He could be the fastest receiver in the league, but also didn’t catch a pass as a rookie, but as a late-round flier, why not take a chance that Ross can emerge as a big-play threat for the Bengals?

Eric Ebron, TE, Indianapolis – The 2014 first-round pick has spent most of his career on the sleepers list, showing enough flashes to think that he could bring more. In the Colts’ offence this year, he just may have a better chance to produce.

Jake Butt, TE, Denver – Although he missed his entire rookie season, the Broncos tight end was a productive receiver at Michigan, catching 97 passes for 1,200 yards and seven touchdowns in his last two seasons for the Wolverines. Now healthy, he has a chance to become a reliable receiving option for Case Keenum.

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LAKE FOREST, Ill. (AP) — No more promises. No more vows.

It’s time for the Chicago Bears to put words to action and show that their rebuilt defense is ready to deliver as advertised.

They host the Buffalo Bills in the season opener this week hoping the big makeover starts to pay big dividends and set a course to the playoffs for just the second time in eight years.

They brought in five-time Pro Bowl defensive end Jared Allen hoping he could spark a nonexistent pass rush and run defense after Chicago got trampled last season. He’s not the only addition to a defense that was one of the worst in franchise history.

The list includes end Lamarr Houston among others. The Bears are healthier, too, after being ripped apart by injuries, and they believe they now have the stoppers to back a prolific offense heading into coach Marc Trestman’s second season.

That starts on the line, particularly with Allen.

“I’ve been on some good defensive lines, and I feel just right there with them as far as comfortability level, knowing what we’ve got to do,” said Allen, who left Minnesota for a four-year deal with Chicago.

There is some uneasiness hovering in Chicago because the defense looked less than dominant during the preseason even when the starters played. And now, it counts.

The Bills are entering a new era after the death of founding father and Hall of Fame owner Ralph Wilson in March. They’re looking for more after three straight 6-10 seasons and 14 playoff misses in a row — the NFL’s longest active streak.

They acquired receiver Mike Williams in a trade with Tampa Bay last spring. They traded their 2015 first-round pick to Cleveland to move up five spots in the draft to take Clemson receiver Sammy Watkins at No. 4. They used three of seven draft picks on offensive linemen and added depth at running back — already a strength — by acquiring Bryce Brown in a draft-weekend trade with Philadelphia.

“It’s time for us to go out there and prove ourselves, and we got a great team to do it against,” running back Fred Jackson said.

Here are some things to look for in Sunday’s game:

MONSTERS AGAIN?: The Bears don’t necessarily need their defense to play like the Monsters of the Midway given the strength of their offense. They just need it to be more effective. Considering how bad it was last year, that shouldn’t be difficult.

The Bears ranked 30th overall and last against the run while tying Jacksonville with a league-low 31 sacks. They gave up 2,583 yards rushing and 5.3 per carry — both club records. But that was last year. They could have eight different starters from the finale against Green Bay in December. Allen (five), Jeremiah Ratliff (four), Lance Briggs (seven), Charles Tillman (two) and Tim Jennings (two) bring a combined 20 Pro Bowl selections.

MANUEL FOR IMPROVEMENT: If the Bills are going to break their playoff drought, their hopes hinge largely on Manuel. Though healthy after being sidelined three times last year with knee injuries, he hasn’t shown signs of taking a big step in his development.

He finished with a 4-6 record with 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions last season after being selected 16th out of Florida State. He got a reminder this week that he still has a long way to go when teammates did not pick him for one of the six team captain spots.

FOR STARTERS … : It wasn’t a great preseason for the Bills’ starting offense. That group failed to score a touchdown on its first 18 possessions before reaching the end zone on consecutive third-quarter drives against Tampa Bay’s second string in a loss Aug. 23. The starters were also scoreless on three possessions in the finale against Detroit last week.

In all, they had four field goals and two scores on 23 possessions. That’s a concern considering all the moves the Bills made on offense.

TOP THAT: The Bears made huge strides on offense in their first year in coach Marc Trestman’s system. Can they top it?

Chicago leaped from 29th to fifth in passing and 28th to No. 8 in total offense in 2013. Jay Cutler had a career-high 89.2 rating, but he missed five games because of injuries. The last time he played a full 16 games was 2009, after the Bears acquired him from Denver.

DOMINANT D: Plenty of eyes will be on the Bears’ defense. But don’t overlook Buffalo’s.

A dominant front line has three returning Pro Bowl picks (Mario Williams, Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus), and end Jerry Hughes had a career-high 10 sacks. They added linebackers Brandon Spikes and Keith Rivers in free agency. One concern: outside linebacker, with Kiko Alonso out with a season-ending knee injury, and replacement Nigel Bradham serving a one-game NFL suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy.

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NAPA, Calif. (AP) — Raiders tight end Clive Walford had the type of offseason that makes coaches cringe and smile.

Walford suffered a knee injury while riding an ATV, and while the accident wasn’t serious, it was enough to keep the 2015 third-round draft pick out of all of Oakland’s OTAs and minicamps.

On the other hand, Walford healed up enough to spend time with quarterback Derek Carr for private workouts, making up for the lost time and giving Walford a head start going into training camp.

Walford showed how critical that was to his development when he made a one-handed catch on a deep throw from Carr during individual drills Wednesday.

“You’ll see him every day we come out to warm up, as soon as he comes out he comes straight to me and wants to catch from me,” Carr said. “That’s the kind of things that we need and that’s how he is.”

Walford is trying to make it through the preseason without a setback after missing large chunks of training camp during his rookie season because of hamstring and knee injuries.

The injuries prevented Walford from practicing and were a major factor in his slow start. A holder of numerous tight end records at the University of Miami, Walford caught only three passes in the Raiders’ first five games a year ago and finished with 28 receptions for 329 yards and three touchdowns.

Part of that was due to Oakland’s revolving door at tight end in 2015. Mychal Rivera caught 32 passes as the primary receiving tight end while Lee Smith was used primarily as an extra blocker.

Although it’s possible the Raiders might still keep three tight ends for the upcoming season, it’s equally likely they’ll go with two.

Walford figures to be atop the depth chart no matter how many tight ends Oakland keeps. He is a better blocker than Rivera, a better receiver than Smith and has the size (6-foot-4, 250 pounds) to be a match-up problem against opposing linebackers and safeties.

“I just continue to do what I’ve been doing, working hard ever since I was at Miami,” Walford said. “If you work hard it’ll start to show. I guess that’s what it’s doing.”

The Raiders weren’t happy when news broke of Walford’s injury while riding the ATV. Walford said he hit an unexpected bump on the trail and tumbled off.

“Believe it or not, when the accident first happened I didn’t realize how serious it was until I got to the hospital,” Walford said. “I thought maybe I just needed some stitches. They told me I was going to be out for a while, so I had to inform the team.”

Although he was unable to take part in on-field workouts while recovering, Walford stayed busy in the meeting rooms and weight room. Catching passes from Carr away from practices also helped make up for the lost time.

“The chemistry is still there,” Walford said. “I just have to get back into football shape.”

Raiders coach Jack Del Rio said Walford’s desire to work out with Carr on the side was encouraging.

“When you take the time to get on the same page with your quarterback, if you’re somebody that’s going to catch the ball and be involved in the offense, that’s a positive thing,” Del Rio said. “That’s a great sign for our football team. We see him as a real key player in our offense. Glad to have him back doing his thing.”

Notes: Undrafted defensive lineman Greg Townsend Jr. returned to practice. … Owner Mark Davis will fly Friday to Canton, Ohio, along with his mother for the Hall of Fame induction ceremonies for the late Ken Stabler.

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LOS ANGELES — You’re a quarterback, and you want to throw against the Los Angeles Rams.

Perhaps you’d like to reconsider.

See that older looking gentleman on the sideline? That’s Wade Phillips, orchestrator of some of the best pass defenses this game has ever seen. One even called itself the “No Fly Zone” and everybody else was like, “Yeah, that makes sense.” Now look directly in front of you. That’s Aaron Donald. You know, reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year, pressure king, destroyer of worlds? Next to him is Ndamukong Suh, the 6-foot-4, 305-pound behemoth who will, quite literally, step all over you. He’s the new guy. And next to him is Michael Brockers, who need not be overlooked.

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Now let’s just say you overcome all that. Donald, Suh and Brockers have compiled 72.5 sacks over the past four years, even though the vast majority of their snaps have come within the interior, which made them far more susceptible to double- and even triple-teams. Together, they form one of the greatest trios of defensive tackles throughout NFL history.

But let’s say your offensive line holds up, or your athleticism allows you to bounce outside, or you somehow find a crevice within the pocket. Here’s the thing: You’ll be in a frantic rush, and that is no way to attack what lies beyond Donald, Suh and Brockers.

On one side it’s Marcus Peters, who has 19 interceptions since he came into the league in 2015. No man has more. On the other side it’s Aqib Talib. He has 34 interceptions since he came into the league in 2008, and only one man (Charles Woodson) has more. Talib and Peters are two of the game’s best ball hawks, and so is the guy playing behind them.

His name is Lamarcus Joyner. Pro Football Focus considered him the NFL’s third-best safety in 2017, even though it was his first year playing that position at the highest level. He thinks he can be better, and he’s probably right.

Look at it this way, hopeful thrower of the football: Donald, Suh, Talib and Peters have combined for 16 Pro Bowl appearances. Joyner and Brockers could have easily been Pro Bowlers, too. The Rams’ other safety, 22-year-old John Johnson, and their slot corner, 26-year-old Nickell Robey-Coleman, are perfectly capable of being that eventually.

Opposing quarterbacks posted the NFL’s sixth-lowest Total QBR against the most recent Rams, who went from 10 consecutive losing seasons to an 11-5 record and a division title in 2017. They have since added 53 interceptions to their secondary and, on Monday, 51.5 sacks to their defensive line.

So, throw at your own risk.

Or perhaps you’d just like to hand it off.

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The Arizona Cardinals opened the 2016 season with a two-point loss on a missed field goal versus the New England Patriots. The defeat was a harbinger of things to come in a disappointing 7-8-1 season for Bruce Arians’ team.

Of the Cardinals’ eight losses, five came by seven points or fewer.

Speaking on NFL Network’s Good Morning Football on Wednesday to promote his new book The Quarterback Whisperer, Arians said he’s focused this offseason on getting back to winning those tight tilts.
“You gotta win close games,” he said. “The NFL is all about close games. And we had won more close games than anybody in the league previous years. And last year, we lost four games that we had — three by kicks, one by just not playing smart. We could have been smarter. We spent all offseason practicing those scenarios that put you in critical situations so we can be a smarter football team.”

In 2016, the Cardinals lost five one-score games, while winning just three contests of eight or fewer points (two three-point victories, one eight-point win). During their 13-3 2016 season, the results were more lopsided. Just five of Arizona’s 13 wins that year came within eight points — not counting the overtime playoff victory over the Packers. Just one of those three defeats were by fewer than 12 points.

Arians is correct to zero in on execution in close contests.

Per NFL Research, 146 of 256 games in 2016 were decided by eight points or fewer, the most such games in a season in NFL history. Of those contests, 72 were won by teams that trailed in the fourth quarter, the most in a single season in NFL history.

The Cardinals overhauled their roster this offseason, hoping to put the lost 2016 season behind them. Those changes included swapping kickers (veteran Phil Dawson in for Chandler Catanzaro) with the plans of eking out a few more close wins. The next step is moving past the mental errors that eroded their chances last season.